With just seven rounds remaining in the 2024 season, and the two leading drivers in the world championship lining up on the front row of the grid together, this should be a tense and enthralling Singapore Grand Prix.
However, when it comes to the intrigue of any title battle, the level of excitement is inversely proportional to the points gap between the main protagonists.
With Lando Norris’ deficit to Max Verstappen still standing at more than two race wins, it will require something very dramatic to happen to the Red Bull driver for the points lead to close up on Sunday. No matter: The prospect of another Norris-versus-Verstappen contest is exciting enough on its own merits, regardless of the championship situation.
By his admission, Hamilton has struggled in qualifying so far this season. However, whenever he reaches the top two rows on the grid, strong finishes tend to follow. On the three occasions Hamilton has started fourth or higher in 2024, he has never finished lower than he started and has won the race the last two times, at Silverstone and Spa-Francorchamps.
That means Norris has more to worry about on Sunday’s race than just the three-times world champion he shares the front row with, but the driver with seven titles to his name behind both of them. Something Norris is acutely aware of.
“There’s 150 wins or something between them,” Norris said. “So I’ve got nothing on them and nothing comparing to them. I find it cool that I’m here and I’m amongst them and trying to fight against them.”
But who will prevail over the course of the longest night of the season? The sport’s most successful driver ever, the current world champion, or the driver who is desperately trying to join them?
Weather
Although pre-race rain appeared to be on the cards in the build-up to the Singapore Grand Prix, updated forecasts indicate drivers can expect a fully dry race. As the dramatic downpour that occurred after Friday’s second practice showed, however, the weather is always liable to change on a whim in this part of the world.
Even if it remains dry, the stifling heat won’t be any less of a challenge with temperatures expected to start at 30C and only slightly decrease over the course of the race. As Hamilton noted after qualifying, that could make keeping tyres in the right operating window a key element of the race.
Start
Norris has squandered his pole advantage too many timesNorris’ failure to lead the opening lap of any sprint race or grand prix he has started from pole position – in six attempts – is now one of F1’s most infamous statistics. If there ever was a time for him to break it, now is surely the occasion.
The run from pole position to the turn one is just over 200 metres, leaving little space for Verstappen to jump the McLaren into the lead off the line. However, that was also true in Zandvoort, the last time the pair lined up in these same positions together, and Norris still managed to lose his lead.
But Norris can take heart from knowing how uncommon it is for drivers starting on pole to lose the lead at the start in Singapore. Over the last 10 races held here stretching back to 2012, the driver on pole has only failed to lead the opening lap twice: When Sergio Perez got ahead of Charles Leclerc in 2022, and when the Ferraris of Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel tangled with Verstappen five years earlier.
Strategy
This part of the season has effectively been the ‘one-stop race’ leg of the calendar and there’s little reason to expect much different on Sunday.
Will anyone risk softs for a faster start?Pirelli anticipate that a medium-hard one-stop strategy is the quickest way to the chequered flag, but unlike some recent rounds they do expect that starting on the softs could be a “viable option” even for those aiming to stop only once. Last year, Leclerc used the softs to jump George Russell into second place off the line, proving crucial for Ferrari team mate Carlos Sainz Jnr’s prospects for victory.
Starting further back, the hard-medium approach appears to be the best. But with the possibility of a Safety Car at any time, all the best planning in the world cannot foresee a sudden change in race dynamic that comes with a Safety Car.
Overtaking
Interactive: See how the F1 drivers’ title could be decided using the Points CalculatorAlthough this is a ‘proper’ street circuit with several corners where overtaking is simply not viable, there are surprisingly many places around the lap where braking zones are heavy enough to allowed for the possibility of out-braking moves to be pulled off. The last 10 races here have seen an average of 27.2 on-track overtakes for position.
The most obvious spot is at the end of the fastest straight on the circuit on the way into the 90 degree left hander at turn seven following the DRS straight, but the following right hander of turn eight offers an opportunity. As too do the runs to turn 10 as well as turn 14.
New for this year is a fourth DRS zone along the newest straight between turns 14 and 16. But pole winner Norris does not seem to believe that will necessarily help to offer more passing opportunities. Asked if he felt that the fourth zone could make his life holding off the cars behind him more difficult on Sunday, he simply replied: “No”.
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Safety Cars
Through the 14 races at Singapore so far, there has been at least one full Safety Car deployment every time. But as any good statistician knows, the 100% rate of Safety Cars in every race held here so far does not mean there is a 100% chance of one occuring on Sunday.
Make no mistake, the potential for a Safety Car is certainly as high around Singapore as any other circuit of the calendar. The last 10 rounds here have Bernd Maylander called into action on 17 occasions, an average of 1.7 deployments per race – higher than any other track on the calendar. However, there has not been a single (non-virtual) Safety Car deployment since the Canadian Grand Prix.
With many opportunities to try and pass and limited run off areas, any kind of accident could trigger a Safety Car at any stage of the race. But with the old ‘float’ section removed from the track for the next few years, one of the most troublesome spots on the circuit is no longer a factor, reducing the overall risk of a Safety Car appearance.
One to watch
While all the focus will obviously be on the two championship leaders as they both look to outdo the other over 55 laps, there is one driver starting down the order – but not necessarily out of position – whose future in Formula 1 could hang in the balance on Sunday.
Ricciardo’s poor season continued in SingaporeAfter 256 grands prix, Daniel Ricciardo might be able to face the final curtain of his F1 career. The rumour mill has been cranking up to maximum capacity in recent days as Red Bull assess their options for their driver line up for their second RB seat in 2025. Yuki Tsunoda is confirmed, but Ricciardo is not and there’s a growing sense the 35-year-old veteran’s days are numbered.
In Singapore, there is even a suggestion that Ricciardo may be dropped in favour of Liam Lawson before then – even as soon as after Sunday’s race. The pressure is on as team principal Laurent Mekies said that RB will assess their drivers’ performance after this weekend.
So Ricciardo’s underwhelming performance in qualifying, knocked out in Q1 eight places lower than his Q3-reaching team mate, will only have turned the pressure up another notch. But Ricciardo knows how to race at Singapore, having taken four podium finishes over the years, and now is the time for him to turn of his experience into a strong race. Otherwise, this could be his 257th and final grand prix…
